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The 3+1 Geopolitical Risks for 2025

The world is evolving at a rapid clip and 2025 will see no shortage of geopolitical developments yielding market-altering impacts. TAG Intel is here to make sense of it all.
Our experts have identified the three leading geopolitical risks most likely to influence markets in 2025, and we’ll be analyzing these risks—and their impacts—for our subscribers throughout the year. Stay ahead of the action with our 3+1 Weekly Risk Report where we deliver unique insights and best-in-class analysis on our three leading risks plus the Weekly Wildcard, a burning geopolitical issue that needs to be on your radar.

TAG Intel's 3+1 for 2025

Emerging World (Dis)Order

What’s happened. Beginning with Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and escalating ever since, an emerging axis of countries is sowing chaos, bucking international norms, and threatening global security and stability. This axis—comprised chiefly of Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang—will continue to prosecute disorder in 2025 with an eye toward bolstering their autocratic undergirding, pursuing irredentist aims, and undermining free-market ideals.

The bottom line. An Emerging World (Dis)Order will further catalyze geopolitical shifts, test alliances, and impact markets. Our weekly coverage could include developments related to Russia’s war in Ukraine, China preparing for an invasion of Taiwan, North Korea testing a new missile, and Russia interfering in European elections.

Middle East in Flux

What’s happened. The past year’s unprecedented developments in the Middle East will give way to a 2025 marked by rapidly evolving political, security, and economic trajectories across the region. Israel will continue its multifront war as it remains eager to further weaken Iran and degrade its various proxy militias. Iran will calibrate just how far it can advance its nuclear program without risking attack. Syria will chart a new course, and Turkey will seek to amplify its influence across the region. The Gulf states will reassess their positionings towards both Israel and Iran with a new White House as a backdrop.

The bottom line. A Middle East in Flux will have cascading effects on global energy markets, geopolitical stability, and global defense spending and military planning. Our weekly coverage could include developments in Israel’s multifront war, regime stability in Iran, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes, Syria’s evolution, Turkey’s ascending influence, and machinations in the Gulf states.

Resource Security, Tech, & Competition

What’s happened. Advanced technologies such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI), and quantum computing will define the geopolitical heavy hitters of 2025 and beyond. Those with the capacity to develop, manufacture, and harness these technologies—critical to both national security and economic development—will surge ahead while those without will prove vulnerable. As a prerequisite, countries will need to shore up their access to critical minerals, rare earth elements, and energy resources. Competition could be fierce, and global powers will look to court (or coerce) resource rich countries, invest in infrastructure projects to more easily extract these resources, and safeguard intellectual property from aiding an adversary. 

The bottom line. Resource Security, Technology, & Competition will exacerbate geopolitical tensions, catalyze trade wars and potentially hot wars, and give rise to new alliances, all while climate impacts and natural disasters threaten resources’ stable supply. Our weekly coverage could include developments related to AI, quantum computing, semiconductors, critical mineral extraction, China’s Belt & Road Initiative, resource competition, and natural disasters like wildfires or hurricanes.

Weekly Wildcard

What’s happened. If the past is precedent, we know the unexpected can occur at any moment. In the final months of 2024, no one expected South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol to declare martial law, Syrian rebels to precipitously topple dictator Bashar al-Assad, or an ISIS-radicalized terrorist to carry out an attack on US soil. Such wildcard events will happen in 2025. When they do, TAG Intel will give you the latest insights and tell you why it matters.

The bottom line. Wildcard events can be disruptive, catching markets by surprise and sending governments into tailspins. Our weekly coverage will help keep your decision-making driven by facts and analysis, not knee-jerk reactions.

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