Dear Friends, As the new year approaches, I’m struck by how nations are carefully balancing their economic needs with their political ones, and the compromises they’re making in the process. Whether the US should allow semiconductor chips to be sent to China or if Israel should send gas to Egypt are the types of decisions...

There was a major escalation in Washington’s pressure campaign against the Venezuelan regime this week when the US military seized the sanctioned oil tanker Skipper off the coast of Venezuela on the very same day that the Nobel Peace Prize was being awarded to Maria Corina Machado—the Venezuelan opposition leader. The Trump administration has been...

Dear Friends,   The kinetic wars of the past several years have sparked an urgent need for increased diplomacy and military defenses alike. We’re seeing both at play right now in Eastern Europe, where Washington is trying to advance ceasefire negotiations while developments on the physical battlefield might be the ultimate decider. We discuss this...

Dear Friends,   New security developments—which appear to spring up overnight—are often underpinned by growing tensions. Twin terrorist attacks within 24 hours in South Asia. Coalition governments teetering on the brink in places like Israel. Military buildups accelerating among two former WWII Axis powers. Mass protests materializing quickly in Mexico. For those of us who...

Dear Friends,   What a government chooses not to do can be as meaningful as what it does. When Secretary of State Rubio boards a plane to Canada for the G7 but the administration boycotts the G20 in Johannesburg and skips COP30 in Brazil entirely, that’s not simply calendar management, it’s strategic signaling. When a former jihadist...

Dear Friends,   As we navigate another active week in global affairs, I’m struck by the expansive nature and wide range of Washington’s foreign policy efforts. From President Trump’s surprise confrontation with one of Africa’s most populous nations to the high-stakes electoral drama unfolding in Baghdad, Washington is trying to exert influence through a combination...

Dear Friends,   It’s Halloween and Washington’s closing out a week of tricks and treats designed to counter Chinese influence on both the political and economic fronts. On his trip to Asia, President Trump was able to secure important trade and investment deals with Japan and South Korea to help temper Chinese regional dominance, but...

Dear Friends,   In the competition between the world’s heaviest economic hitters, there’s a ripe space for other well-positioned nations to build clout and exploit the tensions all around them. We’re seeing this in the Middle East, where Qatar continues to have an outsized impact on the Gaza ceasefire negotiations, in Afghanistan, where the Taliban...

Dear Friends,   The divide between economic and political deals is narrowing, and with it comes a host of tensions and opportunities. The trade war between China and the United States is heating up again, threatening supply chains and striking market fears, but the volatility is both derived from political tensions and forming new ones....

Dear Friends,   Two years after Hamas unleashed a devastating attack on Israel that spurred a wider regional battle and a tragic war in Gaza, we are in a moment of cautious hope. A Trump-brokered ceasefire promises to lower the temperature and allow both Palestinians and Israelis to pause and take a breath. It’s not...

Dear Friends,   Silicon Valley and the venture capitalists who built it were the first to welcome “disruptors.” It now seems society more broadly has grown to embrace them. Different from innovators or trailblazers, disruptors aren’t too worried about breaking things. They’re fast, nimble, and action-oriented. They’re not afraid to be wrong. When I look...

Dear Friends,   This week, international news struck a personal note for me, as I was overseas while a major ransomware attack on an aerospace company caused disruptions at airports throughout Europe. Thankfully, I’m now back safely on the home front, but the incident was a stark reminder of how dependent we’ve become on interconnected...

Dear Friends, The temperature outside might be dropping but Washington’s efforts to promote national security are heating up. To the south, the United States is taking more aggressive military action against transnational narcotraffickers–striking another vessel off Venezuela’s coast on Monday. To the east, we’re making multibillion-dollar deals to advance our nuclear power industry in lockstep...

Dear Friends,   It was an emotional week for Americans as the relentless disease of political violence claimed its latest tragic victim in the young Charlie Kirk, only to be followed a day later by the anniversary of 9/11 – where we commemorated the thousands of innocents who were senselessly killed under the guise of ideology...

Dear Friends, As the seasons begin to change, I’m struck by the difference between what we see and what’s happening beneath the surface- both in the natural world and the political one. When it comes to the alliance displayed among China, Russia, and North Korea, I’m wary of overestimating the strength of their friendship. I’m...

I’m pleased to share another week of analysis with you in my 3+1 Weekly Risk Report. I also invite you to take a look at my op-ed which ran yesterday in USA Today. The drug cartel threat is a mounting national security concern. But we must partner with Mexico to prosecute the drug war in...