Dear Friends,
This week, international news struck a personal note for me, as I was overseas while a major ransomware attack on an aerospace company caused disruptions at airports throughout Europe. Thankfully, I’m now back safely on the home front, but the incident was a stark reminder of how dependent we’ve become on interconnected systems that are only as good as their weakest link, and how technology might be the thing that damns us or saves us—depending on how it’s used. As global leaders gathered this week at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, it’s clear that while technology is quickly surging ahead, reshaping trade and political relationships along the way, diplomacy is seemingly stagnating. How can we apply the same drive and pressures to innovate and resolve longstanding conflicts as we do to develop stronger batteries and security defenses? If you have any ideas, please feel free to drop me a line!
Kind Regards,
Jack Devine
CIA Spymaster & Chairman, TAG Intel
Emerging World (Dis)Order
Russia is really testing the Europeans these days, sending drones into the airspace of multiple countries like Denmark, Estonia, Poland, and Romania and interfering with NATO partners like Moldova—all the while continuing to pummel Ukraine unabated. Given the sheer number of Russian incursions into NATO airspace that have occurred over the past few weeks alone, it’s unsurprising that NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has described Russia’s actions as “coordinated provocations” meant to challenge the alliance’s cohesion and probe for weak spots in its Eastern flank. But Russian President Putin is overplaying his hand, and I’m watching several simultaneous responses that should remind him of his limitations.
Right now, the EU is moving toward unlocking frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s defense, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz openly endorsing the once-taboo policy. The funds could surpass $160 billion. Merz’s proposal includes an interest-free EU loan initially backed by member states and then by the EU’s long-term budget from 2028. The assets themselves would remain frozen and untouched until Russia formally commits to paying reparations for the war’s destruction.
What’s more, this week US President Donald Trump said he believed Ukraine could win back all its territory with EU support—a major shift in the White House’s rhetoric regarding the fate of the Ukraine-Russia war. Trump even met with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, where Zelenskyy himself was reportedly surprised by the degree of Trump’s turnaround. Whether this shift will stick or materialize into any broader US support for Ukraine is uncertain, but Putin still won’t be happy to hear it.
Meanwhile, in addition to sending drones into NATO airspace, Putin is exploiting political boundaries in Moldova, where the Kremlin is full steam ahead to undermine the pro-European party’s chances ahead of crucial September 28th parliamentary elections. Russian interference aimed at halting the country’s European integration includes cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and covert financing of pro-Russian parties—methods which have already been deployed to great effect in Romania.
For Putin, a favorable result in Moldova is about more than soft power. Moldova’s Transnistria region is home to around 1,500 Russian troops, and if a Putin-friendly government comes to power, he could pour 10,000 additional troops to the area in a move that would force Ukraine to divert military forces from the main frontlines to defend key cities like Odessa. I’ll be watching to see how things turn out for him in the next few days, and how Russia’s multiple regional opponents will unite to keep his influence at bay.
Middle East in Flux
While the political landscape of the Middle East has been significantly altered since the October 7 Hamas attacks, two of the most obstinate regional obstacles remain: that of Palestinian statehood and governance, and Iran’s nuclear program. Both are longstanding and intractable issues that aren’t readily solvable through military action alone, and perhaps it’s no surprise that they were at the fore again this week at the United Nations General Assembly.
But these two issues are highly contested, and all interested parties are seemingly doubling down on their positions. Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel—who is expected to address the UN today—has asserted that “There will be no Palestinian state” regardless of an uptick in global pressure to recognize one. Just over the past week France joined a cadre of US allies who are advocating for the formal recognition of Palestinian statehood in an effort that the US administration has called “superficial” and a reward to Hamas and its terrorist tactics. House Democrats are urging President Trump to join US allies in recognizing Palestine but there’s little indication that the administration will listen.
One of the trickiest parts about Palestinian statehood has always been that the recognized territories of Gaza and the West Bank are physically disconnected and have distinct histories and significance. While Gaza remains under Israeli attack with seemingly little push back from the United States, things are more malleable in the West Bank where many of Trump’s Gulf allies have drawn red lines in terms of Israeli annexation. Acknowledging this dichotomy and the threat it presents to the future of the Abraham Accords, this week Trump reportedly assured Arab leaders that he wouldn’t let Israel annex the West Bank. But Israel’s been forging ahead on a settlement plan there, and it will take concerted US action to make Netanyahu shift course.
Meanwhile, Iran is trying to avoid the so-called “snapback” sanctions that will kick into place on Saturday should it not fully adhere to the obligations set out under the 2015 nuclear deal. While Iran would no doubt prefer to appease Germany, Britain and France who have taken a strong stand against Iran’s nuclear pursuit, it’s also true that China and Russia won’t likely honor a new round of sanctions through any meaningful changes in their Iranian dealings. Like in Gaza, where Israel isn’t under determinative pressure from its primary ally the United States, Iran isn’t under significant pressure from its patrons Russia and China to shift course on its nuclear actions.
Because of this dynamic, and the challenging nature of these remaining, stubborn conflict points, it’s unlikely that either of these issues will reach a quick resolution. But over the course of the past two years of regional war, we’ve seen the seemingly impossible happen in Syria and Lebanon, and before that the remarkable diplomatic openings between some Arab states and Israel. While the immediate outlook might be grim, decades ago Iran and Israel were collaborators and there’s no inherent reason why they couldn’t eventually reconcile again. And with the Palestinian issue receiving perhaps the most attention at any point in history, change—even if in an unclear direction—is likely in the works.
Resource Security, Tech, and Competition
Global demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is having a striking impact on both fossil fuel consumption and battery innovation. And in the process, electrification is sparking hopes for energy independence for nations worldwide. While we’re still in the early EV days, in China, EVs make up half of all car sales, and EV purchases are also accelerating in India, Vietnam, and Turkey. Norway, the global leader in EV adoption, saw a 12% decline in gasoline and diesel consumption between 2021 and 2024, which is attributed to the EV shift. These days, Europeans are looking less dependent on Russian oil as they can power-up some sectors through electric means alone and the Chinese are becoming increasingly self-reliant as they surge ahead in electrification.
A wave of battery innovation is central to the electrification shift, and many traditional fossil-fuel companies don’t want to miss out. In the United States, oil majors like Exxon are repositioning themselves by developing synthetic graphite and entering lithium production in Arkansas, with ambitions to become a top EV battery supplier by 2030. Other innovative companies like the US startup Sila, have ambitions to build the world’s largest anode production site in Washington state by 2030: Sila’s new silicon-carbon anodes, which have 20% more energy density than graphite, are already backed by a $100 million DOE grant from 2022, as well as partnerships with Mercedes-Benz and Panasonic.
Indeed, the fates of batteries and EVs are currently intertwined and leadership in battery innovation is now both an industrial and security imperative. For the United States, what happens next on the battery trajectory will impact the success of domestic EV production, as well as the ability to compete on the international stage. As the aspiration to master one technological innovation like EVs drives secondary innovations in technologies like batteries, it will incite further change and attention towards other associated products- like charging equipment and techniques. We’re in a new race to power that will depend largely on innovation, and it promises to shape new geopolitical relationships in the process.
Weekly Wildcard
This week, European airports faced a major digital meltdown – and unfortunately, I had the distinct pleasure of getting caught in it! Starting Friday night, a ransomware attack struck Collins Aerospace’s worldwide check-in and boarding system and chaos spread quickly. Brussels Airport, London Heathrow, Berlin Brandenburg, and several others saw their automated check-in and baggage systems grind to a halt. Staff scrambled, reverting to pen-and-paper boarding passes and backup laptops, as hundreds of flights were delayed or canceled. At Brussels alone, over 50 departures were axed in the first wave.
The EU’s cybersecurity agency, ENISA, confirmed that a ransomware infection at Collins was the culprit. Authorities raced to identify who was behind the attack. In the UK, police arrested a man in his 40s linked to the incident, though investigations continue and European capitals are eager to determine whether a state actor was behind the attack. As Russian aircraft make aggressive maneuvers into NATO airspace, I also have to wonder whether Russian-linked hackers aren’t also somehow tied to this attack. Time will tell.
Regardless, this incident exposes a growing danger in our interconnected world: how a single weak link in a global supply chain can trigger continent-wide chaos. Airports and airlines are now bolstering their manual backup plans as digital recovery efforts ramp up. Governments will need to think carefully about how to harden critical infrastructure amid ever-evolving cyber threats. If this can happen to airports across Europe, what about telecommunications networks, electric grids, and water systems? At the United Nations this week, yet another potential communications hack was unfoiled—foreboding more of the like to come.
For passengers and airline workers, the nightmare still isn’t over yet. Full return to normal operations may take days. But one thing’s clear: the digital skies are a new battleground, and the fallout from this attack is a stark warning for critical industries everywhere.
