Dear Friends,
The temperature outside might be dropping but Washington’s efforts to promote national security are heating up. To the south, the United States is taking more aggressive military action against transnational narcotraffickers–striking another vessel off Venezuela’s coast on Monday. To the east, we’re making multibillion-dollar deals to advance our nuclear power industry in lockstep with the Brits. And with an eye towards maritime security and the Arctic, we’re ramping up efforts to build icebreaking ships. Like with our nuclear energy and technological pursuits, we’ll need to be one step ahead of our adversaries there to ensure our own protection, and partnerships can serve as a force-multiplier if we pursue them carefully. Meanwhile, domestic strife worldwide continues, with protests in Turkey against longstanding President Erdogan threatening stability just as Syria is trying to get its footing and Ukraine needs a dependable ally. As always, I welcome discussing these issues further. Drop me a line.
Emerging World (Dis)Order
Tensions are ratcheting up in the Caribbean as the US military struck another Venezuelan vessel transporting illegal drugs to the United States this week. The series of September strikes, which have killed at least 14 people so far, send a clear message to Caracas and the region at large: drug traffickers will be hunted down, not apprehended, and Washington means business.
The legality of that message—and the precedent it sets—are being fiercely debated in Washington and beyond. US President Trump, who signed a still-classified directive this summer allowing military action against Latin American drug cartels, has stated that the traffickers are not mere criminals; they’re foreign terrorists who present a national security threat to the United States, and are thus legitimate military targets.
The response from Caracas has been swift but is just for show. President Nicolás Maduro has denounced the strikes as “acts of war” and ordered military drills in the Caribbean. This week, Venezuela’s armed forces began “Caribe Soberano 200”—a three-day joint air, land, and sea exercise involving warships, drones, anti-aircraft systems, and amphibious assault units centered on the remote island of La Orchila.
The Pentagon denies that regime change is the goal of the US deployment in the Caribbean, but President Trump refused to rule out the possibility of direct strikes on Venezuelan territory. Behind the drug war framing lies a broader shift: the re-militarization of the US-Venezuelan relationship, with both countries operating on war footing.
The Caribbean may no longer just be a trafficking corridor. It’s becoming a contested battleground. And with military assets in motion and diplomatic lines largely severed, there’s room for miscalculation. However, messaging from the White House suggests that the Trump administration remains uninterested in an invasion of Venezuela. And given the inferiority of Venezuela’s military, Maduro is unlikely to initiate any direct confrontation.
While violent confrontation raises political risks in our own backyard, right now there’s an opportunity to send a clear signal to the narcotraffickers who’ve been acting with reckless abandon, and sometimes force is the only language they speak.
Middle East in Flux
There’s fresh volatility in Turkey as President Erdogan is using the courts to weaken the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), risking a shift from competitive to hegemonic authoritarianism and boosting his chances of extending his 22-year rule. Tens of thousands protested in Ankara over the weekend, chanting for Erdogan’s resignation, as a ongoing case threatens to sideline CHP leader Özgür Özel and further weaken imprisoned Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. Since October, authorities have detained more than 500 CHP members, including 17 mayors, amid corruption investigations that are likely politically motivated.
A court decision on the CHP’s future has been delayed until October 24, temporarily calming markets. The Turkish market was on edge and crashed when Imamoglu was jailed back in March but has now surged on the adjournment. Still, the gains are fleeting, given that the ruling was merely postponed. The broader concern—that Erdogan has bent once-independent institutions from the courts and central bank to the media and military to his will—remains acute and certainly isn’t a threat limited to Turkey.
Further, the implications stretch beyond Turkey’s borders. As a NATO member with troops in northern Syria, a reaffirmed support to Syria’s stability and reconstruction, and responsibility for 3.6 million Syrian refugees, Ankara plays a pivotal role in Middle Eastern stability. Domestic turmoil could constrain Erdogan’s ability to manage Syria’s conflict dynamics, refugee pressures, and regional crises, while also complicating Turkey’s position between its allies.
Resource Security, Tech, and Competition
Nuclear power’s been heating up the market, particularly in the United States where competing forms of clean energy are seemingly less favored by the Trump Administration while more power is simultaneously needed to propel AI data centers forward.
Feeling the pull, in early September Microsoft became the first major global tech company to join the World Nuclear Association–a London-based international organization focused on promoting nuclear power and supporting companies that make up the nuclear industry worldwide. For a group like Microsoft, the focus will likely initially be on technologies like small modular reactors (SMRs) and fusion energy that can help the group achieve its AI aims while emitting less carbon in the process. And for the World Nuclear Association the focus will be on leveraging the Microsoft brand to encourage further industry promotion.
This week, nuclear power is sparking another major transnational reaction as the United States and United Kingdom just signed a multibillion-dollar deal to expand nuclear power and collaboration. The Microsoft move was likely a precursor to this, but the so-called Atlantic Partnership for Advanced Nuclear Energy deal solidifies the sweeping nuclear aims shared by the two nations and seeks to have a synergistic impact on their respective nuclear advancement.
Time is of the essence as the future of AI and other technological developments will depend on access to a substantial and continuous energy source that holds up without the negative environment impact. The shared fates of the nuclear industry and tech industry are expanding into the shared fates of nations—for example, if a nuclear reactor has been approved in the United States and gone through rigorous US safety checks, it will also be deemed ready for use in the United Kingdom.
A great number of companies are already in business, with groups like X-energy Reactor from the US partnering with the multinational energy and services company Centrica out of the UK, and we can expect more synergistic US-UK deals in the coming months.
However, the massive Atlantic Partnership also comes with implications for Western adversaries and is no doubt upsetting for China and Russia. In the coming weeks, I’ll be looking to see what kind of similar collaborations might be hastily announced in response, but this kind of collaboration on nascent technology with security implications requires a rare and time-tested degree of trust between nations–the likes of which don’t exist in transactional friendships like those of Presidents Putin and Xi.
Weekly Wildcard
A new frontier is opening at the top of the world. Once locked in by ice, the Arctic is now increasingly navigable as warming temperatures shrink the polar ice cap, bringing Russia physically and strategically closer to North America than either the Pacific or Atlantic Oceans ever have.
To operate in these frigid, volatile waters, specialized icebreaker ships are essential. Yet the US and Canada are lagging behind. While Russia commands a fleet of 47 icebreakers, the US has just three, and Canada 19, many of which are aging. This imbalance is triggering a race to catch up.
Earlier this year, the White House earmarked $8.6 billion in its Big Beautiful Bill Act to fund the construction of 17 new vessels. Canada, too, is investing: two new icebreakers are under construction, and several more are set to replace older ships. With North America short on domestic shipbuilding capacity for polar vessels, Finland—the world leader in Arctic icebreaker manufacturing, responsible for 60% of the global fleet—has become a key partner for both countries.
But ships alone won’t secure the Arctic. As the region’s vast untapped reserves of oil, natural gas, and critical minerals come into play, so does geopolitics. Even China is muscling in, dubbing itself a “near-Arctic state” and aligning with Russia on its Polar Silk Road ambitions.
To prepare for the emerging power dynamics, the US and Canada must think beyond icebreakers. They need enhanced domain awareness, modern submarining capabilities, and robust air defense systems to mitigate the security risks of increased Arctic activity. As Western tensions with Russia mount, the literal melting of the Arctic means Russia has never been closer. Tomorrow’s too late to start preparing.
