Dear Friends,
As the new year approaches, I’m struck by how nations are carefully balancing their economic needs with their political ones, and the compromises they’re making in the process. Whether the US should allow semiconductor chips to be sent to China or if Israel should send gas to Egypt are the types of decisions that are motivated by economics but come with political and security repercussions. Of course, Egypt also takes risks by expanding economic cooperation with Israel and the decision makers on both sides of every deal must weigh the strategic advantages over both the short and longer terms. I can only hope that as we enter 2026, acknowledging this interdependence leads to greater cooperation among nations and collectively propels humanity forward.
Wishing you and your loved ones a peaceful and festive holiday season,
Jack Devine
CIA Spymaster & Chairman, TAG Intel
Jack was recently interviewed on the Don’t Do That podcast hosted by Kelly Waltrich of Intention.ly. Listen in to hear Jack discuss today’s global landscape and why, despite it all, he’s optimistic for a better future.
Emerging World (Dis)Order
West Africa is in crisis, and the current turmoil threatens to thwart economic growth and opportunity, endanger local livelihoods, and lead to widespread migration. Earlier this month, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) formally declared the region in a state of emergency following a surge of military takeovers that has shattered decades of democratic progress, and right now there’s little indication of an easy fix.
The numbers tell a grim story. There have been five successful putsches in West Africa since 2020, creating a “coup belt” spanning Burkina Faso, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, and Niger. This month alone brought a successful coup in Guinea-Bissau and a failed putsch in Benin. The ripple effects are significant as military regimes consolidate power and pivot toward Russian and Chinese alliances.
France’s withdrawal from Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad since 2022 has created a dangerous vacuum. New partners—namely, Russian mercenaries—have failed to protect civilians or undermine insurgencies, and in some cases have been accused of taking part in the violence. The security void is expanding dangerously. Over half of the world’s terrorism-related deaths occurred in the Sahel in 2024, according to the Global Terrorism Index, and jihadist groups are pushing southward, expanding their reach.
The crisis has deep implications for Europe in security, migration, and foreign policy, with an estimated 2.2 million refugees displaced from West Africa by terrorism. The instability fuels migration pressures and terror risks that European capitals cannot ignore.
For businesses, the operating environment has become treacherous. The extractives sector faces particularly acute pressures. Mali’s junta arrested the CEO and two employees of Australian company Resolute Mining in November 2024, releasing them only after the company settled a $160 million tax dispute. In January 2025, a Malian judge ordered the seizure of three tons of gold from Canadian miner Barrick Gold and last year Burkina Faso nationalized the Boungou and Wahgnion gold mines owned by Canadian miner Endeavour Mining. Instability and uncertainty abound.
Yet opportunity remains for the bold. West Africa sits atop staggering resource wealth. Right now, the question isn’t whether West Africa matters—it’s whether businesses can navigate the chaos by effectively managing expropriation risk, kidnapping threats, geopolitical uncertainty, and collapsing state institutions.
We help clients cut through political volatility in high-risk environments like West Africa by translating coups, security breakdowns, and regulatory shifts into actionable assessments of expropriation risk, personnel safety, and investment viability. Explore our offerings further.
Middle East in Flux
In sharp contrast to Iran, which has only become more isolated and desperate in the aftermath of the twelve-day war with Israel last summer, Egypt has been following the lead of nations like the UAE and Morocco and is open to economic opportunities with Israel—even at the risk of upsetting its own population.
In the late 2000s, Israel discovered massive offshore natural gas fields that helped transform the country from energy importer to potential regional supplier practically overnight. Egypt, meanwhile, has aging infrastructure and growing domestic demand that’s outstripped its own production capacity. Now, a deal that’s been evolving since 2018 finally made it over the finish line this week likely due to increased pressure on Israel from the Trump administration, and it positions both Israel and Egypt to advance their interests.
The deal, which is valued at about $35 billion, is being framed as economic, but there are political and security implications here as well. Israel will pipe gas to Egypt where it gets liquefied at Egyptian LNG facilities and then exported globally—particularly to Europe, which has been desperate for non-Russian supply since the Ukraine invasion. Israel gets export revenue and regional economic integration, which brings a certain strategic security, and Egypt earns processing fees and can meet domestic needs.
This strikes me as a win-win that would’ve been politically unthinkable a generation ago and even more so given the incredible political tensions during the past two years of the Gaza war. It helps that American companies like Chevron are involved and that there are strong incentives to maintain stable relations because there’s real money on the table. Indeed, the deal helps create interdependencies that cut against the traditional conflict dynamics which are at the heart of the Abraham Accords. Those considering entry are no doubt watching closely to see if economic integration can create durable peace dividends.
The tension, of course, is that this cooperation is happening against the backdrop of Gaza and broader Palestinian issues, which puts Egypt in a delicate position domestically and across the Arab world. This week’s US-led efforts in Doha to move forward on the international stabilization force in Gaza have yet to yield a viable path forward. But as the security situation evolves on its borders, Egypt’s el-Sisi government has seemingly calculated that energy security and economic benefits outweigh the political costs of deepening ties with Israel.
Over the coming weeks, I’ll be watching to see how and if the Arab street responds to Egypt’s strategic decision to move ahead with the deal—and I know I’m not the only one.
Resource Security, Tech, and Competition
President Trump’s decision to allow exports of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China marks a notable departure from the “small yard, high fence” strategy that has guided US technology controls in recent years. Framed as a pragmatic move to support American industry, it’s indicative of how Washington is trying to balance near-term commercial gains against long-term national security and alliance credibility and it comes with both benefits and risks.
Previously, US policy aimed to slow China’s access to the most advanced chips and the tools needed to produce them by having strict controls. The logic was straightforward: limit Beijing’s ability to scale cutting-edge AI systems while preserving US and allied advantages. But the current adjustment alters that calculus and under the new framework, approved sales would generate revenue for the US government (25%) and restrict access to vetted customers, but the chips themselves would still significantly expand China’s available computing power.
While China’s partial dependence on US technology might be preferable to forcing a complete break in terms of the immediate outlook, this dependency is temporary by design. China’s likely aiming to use foreign chips as a bridge until domestic alternatives mature. Access to high-end computing is China’s primary bottleneck and relieving that constraint accelerates the very progress that export controls were designed to delay. Reflecting these concerns, a bipartisan group of senators recently introduced the SAFE CHIPS Act, which would block further loosening of AI chip restrictions for 2.5 years—an unusually direct pushback from within the president’s own party.
Much of the pressure to loosen restrictions is partly driven by fears of rising Chinese competition yet some recent evidence suggests that export controls have been valuable in this regard. Chinese chipmakers remain constrained by production limits and performance gaps they have not yet overcome. Huawei itself, a leading Chinese chipmaker, projects that it will not be able to match the H200’s performance until at least the end of 2027. But large-scale H200 exports might give Chinese firms access to computing capacity they could not otherwise achieve for several more years, potentially reshaping the global AI landscape far sooner than expected.
Meanwhile, regulators in Beijing have discussed ways to permit limited access to the H200—highlighting the potential limits of US leverage as China continues to push toward greater self-sufficiency.
Export controls tend to be most effective when they are predictable and clearly tied to strategic objectives and the Trump administration has been explicit about the importance of AI to national security. The open question is whether short-term revenue and market access are now quietly trading away durable advantages, and how quickly competitors and allies adjust their strategies in response.
Weekly Wildcard
Just as the Trump administration is increasing its focus on Latin America, Chile is turning right. This month’s presidential election saw a landslide victory for Jose Antonio Kast, marking a decisive ideological shift which closes the chapter on current President Gabriel Boric’s progressive experiment and aligns Santiago with a broader regional swing toward conservatism at a moment of potential synergies with Washington.
Kast secured more than 58% of the vote, defeating his opponent Jeannette Jara—a member of the communist party—by a commanding margin. His campaign capitalized on public anxiety over rising crime, illegal immigration, and economic stagnation. A staunch conservative, Kast’s victory will bring Chile’s most right-wing government since the Pinochet era, and the policy proposals—which include steep public spending cuts, the dismantling of some government ministries, and building a border wall—align closely with Trump’s agenda.
And although the country is increasingly polarized, Chile’s democratic institutions will most likely ensure a peaceful transition.
It’s notable that Chile’s pivot is not happening in isolation. Across Latin America, voters are punishing incumbents and empowering leaders who promise open markets and severe crime crackdowns. Argentina’s Javier Milei, Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa, and Bolivia’s Rodrigo Paz reflect a reversal of the “pink tide” of leftist and socialist governments which swept the region in the previous election cycle. And this shift will come with opportunities for security cooperation and investment as more Latin American capitals look towards Washington.
Kast has pledged to protect private property, avoid nationalizations, and cut corporate taxes, all part of an effort to reassure investors bruised by years of constitutional uncertainty. Chile is one of the region’s most resource-rich, institutionally capable, and globally connected economies. For policymakers, investors, and regional observers, his success could restore Chile’s reputation as Latin America’s most reliable market economy, while failure could deepen polarization and test the limits of its institutions.
