Dear Friends,
As we navigate another active week in global affairs, I’m struck by the expansive nature and wide range of Washington’s foreign policy efforts. From President Trump’s surprise confrontation with one of Africa’s most populous nations to the high-stakes electoral drama unfolding in Baghdad, Washington is trying to exert influence through a combination of carrots and sticks. And this broader effort is playing out everywhere from the UAE to Venezuela to North Korea. The common theme here, of course, is the promotion of our national security, and we’ll be watching with keen interest to see how the latest policy developments advance that cause.
Kind Regards,
Jack Devine
CIA Spymaster & Chairman, TAG Intel
Emerging World (Dis)Order
President Trump’s designation of Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern” over alleged Christian persecution has opened an unexpected front in U.S. foreign policy. On Friday, seemingly to the surprise of the Pentagon, Trump moved swiftly to place Nigeria on the religious freedom violations list and instructed officials to prepare for possible action, posting on social media that the U.S. could enter the country “guns-a-blazing” if Abuja doesn’t act.
But the reality on the ground is more nuanced than the administration’s framing suggests. While Boko Haram and affiliated extremist groups have indeed targeted Christians, they’ve also attacked Muslims who don’t adhere to their radical interpretation of Islam. The violence in Nigeria’s northern regions stems from a complex mix of factors such as resource competition between farmers and herders, ethnic tensions, and religious extremism. It’s not a systematic government-sanctioned persecution of Christians.
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has pushed back forcefully, asserting that “religious freedom and tolerance have been a core tenet of our collective identity.” His government insists the characterization is both inaccurate and unhelpful, noting that what Nigeria needs is military assistance to combat terrorism, not threats of invasion. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has remained conspicuously silent.
The Risk Assessment: This confrontation appears less about a coordinated policy review and more about reactive decision-making. But the risks are substantial: alienating Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation could push Abuja closer to its new BRICS partners, undermine U.S. counterterrorism cooperation, and set a dangerous precedent for unilateral military intervention based on incomplete intelligence. For multinational corporations operating in Nigeria or considering the West African market, this diplomatic rupture introduces new layers of regulatory and reputational risk.
Middle East in Flux
Iraq’s parliamentary elections set for November 11 carry extraordinary weight for Tehran. After watching its regional network systematically degraded, with Hamas devastated in Gaza, Hezbollah weakened in Lebanon, Assad toppled in Syria, and its own nuclear facilities struck by Israel with brief U.S. participation, Iran is banking on Iraq to preserve what remains of its so-called “Axis of Resistance.”
The electoral landscape reveals Iran’s precarious position. The Iran-aligned Coordination Framework currently controls parliament, having brought Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to power after influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s faction withdrew in 2021. But Sadr has now called for a boycott, denouncing these elections as “flawed” and “dominated by sectarian, ethnic and partisan interests.” His absence removes a wildcard that previously complicated Iran’s calculations, but it also signals declining public faith in the democratic process.
More than 21 million Iraqis are eligible to elect 329 lawmakers, who will in turn select a president and prime minister through the country’s delicate ethno-sectarian power-sharing formula. And while Iran might be looking to assert control, Washington is playing the same game with greater resources. The United States has expanded economic engagement, sanctioned individuals helping Iran evade restrictions, and appointed Mark Savaya—a Trump ally with deep Iraq expertise—as special envoy with a clear mandate: reduce Iranian influence.
The Risk Assessment: Iraq’s balancing act between Washington and Tehran is in a precarious state. Whoever emerges as prime minister will face impossible demands, as Washington expects “tangible steps that limit Iranian influence,” while Tehran needs Baghdad to maintain economic lifelines and political cover. Further, this year has been Iraq’s driest since 1933, and water scarcity mixed with electricity shortages will challenge any government. For energy companies, defense contractors, and infrastructure investors, Iraq remains a market of enormous potential hobbled by political paralysis. The post-election government formation process could take months, during which policy decisions freeze and business uncertainty peaks.
Resource Security, Tech, and Competition
In what Microsoft is calling a landmark moment, the U.S. Commerce Department has issued the first export licenses under the Trump administration allowing American companies to ship advanced Nvidia AI chips to the United Arab Emirates. Microsoft announced Monday it secured approval in September to export the equivalent of 60,400 additional A100 chips, including Nvidia’s more powerful GB300 GPUs, as part of a broader U.S.-UAE AI partnership announced in May.
But this isn’t just a tech deal, it’s geopolitical architecture. The May agreement allows the UAE to import up to 500,000 of Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips annually through 2027, possibly extending to 2030. Twenty percent will go to Abu Dhabi’s G42, while the remainder goes to U.S. companies like Microsoft, Oracle, and potentially OpenAI that are operating in the Emirates. Microsoft is backing this with $15.2 billion in investments by decade’s end, including a $1.5 billion equity stake in G42.
The approval followed concrete UAE commitments to reciprocal U.S. investment, though specific figures remain undisclosed, and a guarantee of “stringent technology safeguards.” Of note, Washington is requiring that the UAE remove Chinese equipment, particularly Huawei systems, from G42’s operations, without which a deal would trade short term economic gain for longer term for security risks.
The Risk Assessment: While the latest deal could position the Gulf as a third AI superpower alongside the United States and China, it still comes with some risks to our national security. The UAE’s commercial ties to China make it a potential backdoor for Beijing to access cutting-edge AI capabilities despite safeguards. For semiconductor companies, cloud service providers, and AI developers, right now the UAE represents both a massive growth opportunity and a potential compliance nightmare. Regardless, the Trump administration sees this as a trial run for future deals with Gulf nations, making the UAE’s adherence to security protocols a test case for the broader region.
Weekly Wildcard
Despite President Trump’s expressed desire to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, repeatedly claiming that their relationship is “very good”, actions out of Washington this week suggest an increased pressure campaign on Pyongyang. On Monday, the State Department announced plans to ask the U.N. Security Council’s North Korea sanctions committee to designate seven vessels for violations—ships allegedly used to illegally export North Korean coal and iron ore to China that earn Pyongyang $200-400 million annually. And just one day later, Washington imposed sanctions on a group of financial institutions and individuals accused of orchestrating cyber crimes that funded the North Korean nuclear weapons program.
The numbers here are significant, with these cyber crimes generating over $3 billion for the North Koreans, mostly in digital assets, in earnings that the U.S. Treasury reports are greater than that of any other foreign actor. North Korea also appears to not only be supporting China with its exports of energy resources but deepening its ties to Russia through advancing the construction of a land bridge and expanded cooperation on everything from healthcare to infrastructure construction. Not to mention that according to South Korean intelligence, North Korea has been transferring thousands more military personnel to Russia to continue supporting Putin’s ongoing battle in Ukraine.
Given North Korea’s spiderweb of sundry partnerships, it’s not surprising that Trump isn’t the only one looking to intervene. Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi also wants to revitalize dialogue with North Korea to advocate for the return of Japanese citizens who were abducted decades ago. Takaichi even conveyed her desire to hold a face-to-face summit with Kim Jong-Un, something which a Japanese leader hasn’t done in decades.
Indeed, while the U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral partnership remains the primary framework for coordinated North Korea policy, domestic political pressures in all three countries could lead to increased independent outreach and efforts on North Korea.
The Risk Assessment: North Korea’s likely playing a waiting game, betting that Trump’s attention will shift to higher priorities like Ukraine, Gaza, Iran, and Taiwan, while it continues advancing missile and nuclear capabilities. The proposed ship sanctions, for example, could be blocked by China or Russia, thereby demonstrating the limits of U.N. enforcement mechanisms and North Korea’s incentives to change course. For companies with exposure to Northeast Asian supply chains, the risk isn’t imminent conflict but rather continued low-grade instability: periodic missile tests, cyber operations, and the ever-present possibility of miscalculation.
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