Dear Friends,
It’s Halloween and Washington’s closing out a week of tricks and treats designed to counter Chinese influence on both the political and economic fronts. On his trip to Asia, President Trump was able to secure important trade and investment deals with Japan and South Korea to help temper Chinese regional dominance, but direct dealings with China remain tense—as demonstrated by Trump’s recent order to test US nuclear weapons for the first time since 1992. Washington’s also trying to counter Chinese influence in Latin America, asserting US pressure through attacks on narcotrafficking vessels in the Caribbean and hinting at a greater goal of regime change in Venezuela. US action south of our border is a contentious topic that I speak about in depth on this week’s TAG Intel 3+1 podcast. I’d be happy to discuss it further, drop me a line.
Kind Regards,
Jack Devine
CIA Spymaster & Chairman, TAG Intel
Emerging World (Dis)Order
While I firmly believe that President Trump is serious about thwarting the drug trade and is taking important actions against narcotraffickers in the Caribbean accordingly, it’s also true that his administration has been increasingly hinting at political change in Venezuela. President Trump himself is now openly stating that land strikes in Venezuela are likely, and other figures like Florida Senator Rick Scott have said that Maduro’s “days are numbered.” It’s also no secret that key members of the Trump administration like Secretary of State Marco Rubio would love to see Maduro fall.
At this point, targeted strikes and covert action have been floated as options in Venezuela though large-scale intervention remains a remote prospect. Even so, targeted land strikes offer the White House the ability to further rattle the regime without crossing into full-scale war. Maduro’s ability to respond to US strikes is limited; any direct retaliation would invite overwhelming US force.
Reports from Caracas over the weekend claiming that authorities foiled a CIA-backed plot to use mercenaries in Trinidad and Tobago for a false-flag attack should be treated with skepticism, particularly given the regime’s failure to provide details about the alleged arrests. Maduro’s inner circle is clearly feeling the heat: Vice President Delcy Rodríguez reportedly offered the White House a host of concessions to ease tensions—including the opening of the country’s oil sector to US companies and a transition which would see Maduro step down but preserve the regime’s structure. President Trump confirmed he had received the offer, but Rodríguez denied the claims.
But in the process of exerting pressure on Venezuela, Washington is also clashing with Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who has become one of Maduro’s most invaluable regional partners. Petro has signed cooperation agreements with the Venezuelan military for “antinarcotics” operations and criticized the leader of Venezuela’s democratic opposition, Maria Corina Machado, accusing her of “treason” for calling for the invasion of her own country.
President Trump has labeled Petro a “thug” and a “drug dealer” and placed the Colombian leader and members of his inner circle on the “Clinton list,” effectively cutting off their access to the US financial system. Colombia, traditionally one of Washington’s closest allies in the region, now finds itself increasingly at odds with US policy. Given this personal spat, it will be worth watching how the 2026 elections unfold—if Petro’s coalition prevails, it could mark a lasting shift in Bogota’s alignment and a significant disruption in the long-standing US–Colombia partnership.
More on what’s behind the latest U.S. military strikes in the Caribbean and the implications of what might happen next in this week’s TAG Intel 3+1 podcast.
Middle East in Flux
All eyes remain on Gaza but there’s a renewed humanitarian crisis unfolding in Sudan. For more than a year, El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur State, stood as the Sudanese government’s last stronghold in the country’s war-torn west. That changed this week as the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed control of El Fasher after weeks of brutal fighting and allegations of ethnic cleansing in a region that is no stranger to either.
Sudan’s civil-war-turned-proxy-war has pitted the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)—supported by Saudi Arabia and Turkey—against the rebel RSF, a group that receives substantial support, it seems, from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Russia has varyingly backed both sides and reports of Ukrainian and Colombian mercenaries in the mix further complicate the picture.
The United Nations and other rights groups have confirmed that Sudan represents the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, far outpacing the destruction in Ukraine or Gaza. The RSF’s capturing El Fasher spells more violence and devastation to come. There have already been reports of massacres, ethnic targeting, and mass graves. Satellite imagery shows clusters of bodies in the streets. Hospitals—including the Saudi Maternity Hospital—have been shelled, leaving hundreds of patients, mothers, and children dead. Survivors speak of door-to-door killings, sexual violence, and entire neighborhoods burned.
More than 33,000 people fled in just two days as the RSF advanced, but hundreds of thousands are now trapped, cut off from food, clean water, or medicine. Aid agencies warn that starvation and disease in El Fasher could soon claim more lives than the bullets, as has been the case more broadly across Sudan as the war approaches its third year.
The fall of El Fasher is more than a battlefield defeat. It’s the collapse of Darfur’s last refuge, and it reshapes the balance of Sudan’s war. With the SAF gone, civilians in El Fasher and surrounding areas in North Darfur are now at the mercy of the RSF. The group’s history of atrocities against non-Arab ethic groups in Darfur recalls the darkest chapters of the region’s past.
Yet, as the smoke rises over El Fasher, the world still hesitates to act. The extent of foreign involvement in Sudan, particularly on the part of the UAE, means there are powerful levers that Washington, Brussels, and other capitals can pull. This isn’t merely Sudan’s civil war – it’s a fight between middle powers playing out on Sudanese soil and will require a stronger hand of intervention to stop it.
In an environment where proxy wars and shifting alliances redefine the Middle East, The Arkin Group supports clients with forward-looking analysis and crisis monitoring to protect operations and investments.
Resource Security, Tech, and Competition
It was a week of nuclear proportions in both economics and politics, with deals announced among allies and threats laid increasingly bare among adversaries. Back in May, the Trump administration signed four executive orders to promote nuclear energy and strip away the bureaucratic processes that were holding back developments on this front. This week, multiple new deals show that these efforts are manifesting results, with implications for a rethink and redesign of domestic nuclear power and increased collaborations with allies abroad.
The US government announced that it’s partnering with Canadian uranium refiner Cameco to speed up the “deployment of nuclear power” and will be working with the affiliated Westinghouse to construct an estimated $80 billion worth of nuclear reactors throughout the United States. This comes on the heels of a notable nuclear power deal between NextEra Energy and Google, which is yet another sign that we’ll be looking at multiple forms of energy to fuel the domestic AI boom.
Significant nuclear deals have also been signed with Japan and South Korea, several of which come with security implications. On Thursday, President Trump announced that he’d given Seoul approval to construct a nuclear-powered submarine, making South Korea one of the only nations worldwide to have one. But sharing the requisite technology to build one inevitably ups the game of nuclear tensions in a region that’s already fraught with them. When President Trump announced that he’s calling for tests of the US nuclear arsenal, this only further amplified the momentum towards a nuclear revival—with a fine line between peaceful and military usage worldwide.
Weekly Wildcard
President Trump’s Asia tour marked a high-stakes effort to strengthen US partnerships and secure control over the tech economy’s raw materials. And it came with much fanfare. The trip produced a blitz of deals — “Technology Prosperity” pacts with Japan and South Korea, new trade frameworks with Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, and even a peace accord between Cambodia and Thailand.
Washington’s goal is to loosen China’s grip on critical inputs for EVs, semiconductors, and AI hardware, and Asian partners are counting on America’s industrial revival to attract investment and hedge against tariffs. Japan pledged to expand rare earths and tech cooperation under a “new golden age” alliance, while Seoul agreed to invest $350 billion in US shipbuilding in exchange for lower import duties. Markets rallied—with South Korea’s Kospi up 66% this year—as Tokyo and Seoul pledged over $900 billion in combined US investments.
Behind the optics, the trip underscored a deeper race for AI and critical technology dominance. The US–Japan and US–Korea Technology Prosperity Deals are an acknowledgement that AI leadership now depends on who controls both the hardware inputs and the alliances powering its ecosystem. That’s why Washington is building a bloc of “tech allies” to counter China’s dominance. But this strategy threatens to fracture markets if supply tensions persist.
In the direct negotiations between the United States and China this week, the two adversaries were able to reach an agreement, but it’s unlikely to be all smooth sailing. China will resume buying US soybeans, curb the export of chemicals to make fentanyl, and ease rare earths restrictions. Washington’s expected to cut some tariffs in response. But while the deal steadied nervous markets, many analysts viewed it as a pause, not a structural shift.
Indeed, the immediate trade tensions may have calmed for now, but the technology-related supply-chain standoff remains fundamentally unresolved. And because we’re living in a time where military might and technological strength have never been more interconnected, this standoff could quickly reemerge again and serve as the defining fault line of the next phase in the US–China rivalry.
